Systematic Prediction Market Fund
Predictive Partners is a systematic investment fund focused on prediction markets, powered by The Perch — our proprietary intelligence terminal. We identify mispriced probabilities, size positions through quantitative risk frameworks, and compound returns over time. Every trade is verifiable on-chain.
Predictive Partners was founded on the belief that prediction markets represent the purest form of information aggregation. Our proprietary platform, The Perch, gives us a bird's-eye view over global prediction markets — surfacing smart money flow, cross-platform mispricings, and real-time signals that humans would miss. We systematically identify inefficiencies and compound returns through disciplined execution and statistical rigor.
Performance
Cumulative P&L since inception. Data sourced directly from the Polymarket protocol.
Current Holdings
All open positions are displayed in real-time. Data is pulled directly from the Polymarket protocol.
Investment Philosophy
Prediction markets aggregate dispersed information more efficiently than traditional financial markets. By applying disciplined research, probabilistic modeling, and quantitative risk management, we identify mispriced probabilities and compound returns over time. The approach combines elements of quantitative trading, statistical arbitrage, and bankroll management — applied to event-based markets rather than traditional assets.
Most prediction market participants trade on intuition. We trade on data. The Perch — our proprietary intelligence terminal — continuously monitors hundreds of markets, tracking smart money flow, cross-platform price divergences, and signal convergence patterns. When the data says the market is wrong, we act.
Prediction markets are often thinly traded, which means prices can deviate significantly from true probabilities. Large participants can't easily enter these markets, creating structural advantages for disciplined, research-driven capital that knows where to look.
Position sizing follows a Modified Kelly Criterion framework, adjusting dynamically for estimated edge, market liquidity, correlation between positions, and overall portfolio risk. The goal is to maximize long-term geometric growth while keeping drawdowns manageable.
How It Works
We enter positions when our research indicates the market is mispriced:
Proprietary Technology
The Perch is our proprietary prediction market intelligence terminal — a custom-built platform that gives us a bird's-eye view of the entire prediction market ecosystem. It's the engine behind every trade we make.
Real-time connections to every major prediction market. The Perch ingests price data, order flow, and market activity across platforms simultaneously — surfacing opportunities the moment they appear.
Tracks the most profitable wallets in the prediction market ecosystem. When top traders take positions, The Perch detects the flow and flags the signal — often before the broader market reacts.
Automatically matches events across Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and sportsbooks. When the same event is priced differently on two platforms, The Perch quantifies the divergence and ranks opportunities by expected value.
Integrates economic data, calibrated forecasting models, sportsbook consensus, and news feeds into a unified signal framework. Every market price is cross-referenced against independent probability estimates.
Volume anomalies, order book imbalances, price momentum shifts, and forecast divergences are detected automatically. Each signal is scored by confidence and severity, filtering noise from actionable alpha.
Every signal The Perch generates is tracked to resolution. This continuous feedback loop measures signal quality over time, refining detection thresholds and improving the system with each new data point.
How to Invest
The fund is administered through Polyfund, enabling on-chain fund management, transparent performance tracking, and seamless deposits and withdrawals.
Link your Web3 wallet to the Polyfund platform to get started.
Deposit USDC to gain exposure to the fund's strategy and positions.
Monitor real-time NAV, returns, and portfolio activity on the Polyfund dashboard.
Withdraw your capital at any time with full transparency and no lock-up periods.
Fund Transparency
We believe fund transparency is not optional. Investors, partners, and recruiters can independently verify all fund activity at any time.
The fund operates as a systematic prediction market strategy, managed through Polyfund's on-chain infrastructure. NAV is calculated and published in real-time.
Prediction market trading involves substantial risk of loss. Positions are sized using quantitative risk frameworks, but past performance does not guarantee future results.
Investors can withdraw capital at any time through the Polyfund interface. No lock-up periods. Withdrawals are processed on-chain with full audit trail.
Performance data, position details, and trade history are available 24/7 on this website and the Polyfund dashboard. All data is sourced from public on-chain records.
About
Nick spent three years in equity research at Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company), covering public markets from the sell side. He holds a degree from the University of Wisconsin–Madison.
After years of following prediction markets and seeing how often the crowd gets it wrong, Nick built The Perch — a proprietary intelligence platform designed to systematically find where markets misprice probability. He now manages the Predictive Partners portfolio full-time, applying the same analytical rigor from institutional equity research to event-based markets.