We exploit behavioral biases, on-chain signals, and cross-platform mispricings to generate returns uncorrelated with traditional markets. Every position on-chain. Every trade transparent.
Portfolio
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Our Edge
Our proprietary intelligence platform sees what other traders can't — scanning hundreds of markets in real time to find where the crowd is wrong.
Markets are driven by people, and people are predictable. We exploit recency bias, favorite-longshot bias, herding, and the tendency for bettors to overestimate that events will happen.
The Perch tracks the most profitable wallets, detects smart money flow, and surfaces signals from on-chain activity before the broader market catches on.
We monitor Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and sportsbooks simultaneously. When the same event is priced differently across platforms, we act.
Investment Philosophy
Prediction markets are where the world prices what happens next — elections, policy, sports, culture. When behavioral biases push those prices away from reality, the opportunity is measurable and time-bounded.
We don't swing for the fences on a single trade. We size positions so no single outcome can hurt the fund, then spread across hundreds of uncorrelated markets. Each position carries a slight edge in our view — and over hundreds of trades, that edge compounds.
Every position is sized so one loss never threatens the portfolio.
Hundreds of positions across unrelated events. Our edge compounds over volume.
On-chain signals, behavioral analysis, and deep event research on every trade.
Prediction markets are a new alternative asset class — uncorrelated with stocks, bonds, and crypto. We bring fundamental research, behavioral science, and proprietary data tooling to a market still dominated by retail intuition. As the track record grows, we'll benchmark against the S&P 500, gold, and other alternatives so you can see exactly how this asset class stacks up.
Insights
Research, trade breakdowns, and performance updates from the fund.
Get Started
Get exposure to prediction markets without trading them yourself. Fully on-chain through Polyfund.
Link your Web3 wallet to the Polyfund platform.
Gain exposure to the fund's systematic strategy.
Monitor NAV in real time. Withdraw anytime. No lock-ups.
About
Nick spent three years in equity research at Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company), covering public markets from the sell side. He holds a degree from the University of Wisconsin–Madison.
After years of following prediction markets, Nick built The Perch — a proprietary intelligence platform designed to systematically find where markets misprice probability. He now manages the Predictive Partners portfolio full-time.